EIreland - THE ENERGY TRANSITION - Wishful thinking needs to be replaced by the realities of engineering, finance and project delivery

The fundamental challenge arising from the intermittency of renewables has not been adequately addressed to date and energy policy needs to recognise that there is currently no available or prospective alternative to natural gas to meet this essential need.

If there is to be a wholesale transition away from fossil fuels for transport and heating, Ireland’s electricity system will in a short period of just 25 years have to expand to cater for an electricity requirement of 80 TWh in 2050 (compared to 34 TWh in 2024) at a power demand level of up to 12,000 MW (compared to 6,000 MW today).

This will require the completion of over 350 large energy infrastructure projects. These projects will include many hundreds of kilometres of overhead transmission lines and over 200 large onshore wind and solar projects.

Government has set a target to achieve a climate neutral electricity system by 2050 and accepted the imposition of enormous financial penalties by the EU if this objective is not achieved without first understanding and demonstrating how it is feasible. This has been done without estimating how much the endeavour will cost and what impact it will have on the already high price consumers pay for electricity in Ireland.

In addition, the annual National Risk Assessment has, since 2014, correctly identified the country’s vulnerability to energy supply disruptions - notably natural gas - Government policy has, to date, actively prevented this risk being mitigated.

Ireland needs an energy policy which goes beyond wishful thinking to recognise engineering, financial and project delivery realities, even if the consequences of this could mean having to revise the legal and policy objective of climate neutrality by 2050.